1. Tua Tagovailoa
My no1. Ranking comes with a caveat. If you need your QB to play 16 games this year then draft Joe Burrow ahead of Tua. If you a looking for a long term QB to build your dynasty around then Tua is your pick. He isn’t entirely risk free as there are durability concerns with his multiple injuries, the latest of which (dislocated hip) saw Burrow overtake him in the draft. What put Tua above Burrow for me is we’ve seen multiple seasons of production in 2018 and before his injury in 2019. We’ve also seen an air yards per attempt stat and completion percentage that suggested he can push the ball downfield accurately. He’s likely to sit behind the force of nature that is Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the seaso. But ‘Fitzmagic’ and his devil may care attitude when it comes to ball safety mean he’s likely to start once the interceptions start rolling in.
2. Joe Burrow
The new tiger king just broke all kinds of college records in his 2019 season at LSU. He showed a cool head both when moving schools and facing the media speculation that comes with the no.1 pick. Why’s he not my no.1 QB? Well largely down to the narrative that we could have just seen an unsustainable season from Burrow. At LSU he was surrounded by elite talent breaking the record this season for most players drafted with 14. This gave him time to go through his reads and placed elite playmakers around him who were always open. Except this isn’t the full story. Burrow had a very average college profile other than his one season of production. His 2017/18 review shows a poor average depth of target and air yards per attempt. At the bengals he won’t have the weapons or the time he’s used to despite the improvements on their offensive line. While Burrow may have developed and it all may have clicked last year one season of production is no guarantee, no matter how cool Joe is.
3. Justin Herbert
My ranking of Herbert at 3 is based on one thing and that’s 1st round draft capital. He has the build and the big arm most GM’s love in a franchise QB and the draft capital guarantees that once he gets his shot the chargers will give him every opportunity to succeed. He will likely start the season behind Tyrod Taylor who was with chargers coach Anthony Lynn in Buffalo. Herbert also has excellent offensive weapons around him in the form of Kennan Allen Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler. He’ll need those weapons to be successful as his completion percentage is similar to the hotly debated Josh Allen. Like Allen, Herbert can also be grabbed later in the first round in most rookie drafts at the 1.06-1.09 position.
4. Jacob Eason
Eason is another QB with a big arm and prototypical build who landed in and intriguing position. The Colts lost Andrew Luck last season and have filled the void in free agency with veteran Phillip Rivers. They look like a team ready for a serious playoff tilt but they also know that Rivers doesn’t have many years left. Eason is a passer that looks raw and had a poor completion percentage and transferred to Washington after losing his battle with Jake Fromm in Georgia. Most of the time he was bad under pressure because he has no mobility, but looked much better when given a clean pocket to throw from. This is what makes Eason so intriguing. The colts have the best O-line in football and can give Eason the protection he needs. He also has at least 12 months to develop and learn from Rivers who is as immobile as it gets and the colts have built around him with Hines, Campbell, Doyle, Burton, Hilton and Pitman to give options to get the ball out quick. If Eason anyone can develop Eason in this system it’s the colts.
5. Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is a strange pick for the Eagles and points to potential concerns about the longevity of Wentz. Coach and GM chatter talks of wanting to use Hurts as a gadget player in the way that the saints use Taysom Hill. Thats probably doing Hurts a bit of a disservice and he did an admirable job of replacing Tua after he went down injured. He fits the current NFL obsession with mobile quarterbacks and can whip a ball out to a receiver. He doesn't have the mental quickness of a player like Burrow and can be prone to questionable decisions when his first read is covered. But Wentz fitness and the fact that the Eagles Oline should protect him well, makes him an intriguing stash in dynasty superflex.
6. Jake Luton
Luton is intriguing for 2 reasons. First he goes to a Jags team looking to rebuild after being burned by the contracts given to Blake Bortles and Nick Foles. Second while we currently have peak Minshew mania amongst the Jags fans, the franchise has almost no capital invested in him. Minshew will start the season at the top of the pile but if he struggles, Luton was a productive QB in college with a good read of the game, good under pressure and good arm strength. Best still you can grab him later in your super flex rookie drafts.
7. Jordan Love
Love falls all the way to 7th despite the draft capital the packers invested in him because this pick doesn't make any sense. The Packers are committed to future hall of fame pick Aaron Rodgers for at least another 2 years unless they want to take a huge cap hit. Love is also a player who is athletic but isn't very accurate and struggles to get through his reads and when under pressure. The benefit to spending draft capital on a rookie QB is you have them on a cheap contract for 5 seasons. While trading up to grab Love means the packers guarantee a 5th year option, if he sits for 2yrs and develops behind Rodgers you lose most of his value. Finally other than Adams and Jones the packer added no receiving weapons despite needing them. If you Love Jordan let someone else grab him high and trade for him in 12 months when he disappoints this season.
8. Jake Fromm
Fromm is an excellent game manager with great football intelligence but the catch is he has a complete noodle arm and a horrible depth of target. The interesting thing is he’s the complete opposite of the Bills franchise QB Josh Allen who is the big guy with the inaccurate arm. The Bills run first offence can support a game manager like Fromm if Allen struggles with turnovers. He’s a real long shot but one worth keeping an eye on if the Bills struggle to start the season.
9. James Morgan
Morgan is a backup to the Jets first round pick of Sam Darnold in an Adam Gase offence. I won’t be investing anything other than a late round flyer to stash on my Taxi squad if all the other good players are gone. His only real worth is a handcuff to the Darnold owner and I don’t draft handcuffs.
10. Cole McDonald
Tannehill just got paid by the titans and while McDonald was a late round flier who I liked he’s from a small school in Hawaii and he’s only going to be worth looking at in the event of a tannehill injury